THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar and SP 500 technical positioning hints that a reversal of recent moves may be brewing, although confirmation is absent for now.
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, finding initial support at 10803 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern hints at recovery ahead but confirmation requires a daily close above initial resistance at 10882, the 23.6% level (exposing the July 8 swing high at 11009 thereafter). Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the 50% Fib at 10739.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A Doji candle below resistance at 1678.40, the 78.6% Fibonacci expansion, now points to indecision and hints a turn lower may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1652.90, the 61.8% level, with a break below that exposing the 50% Fib at 1635.00. Alternatively, a move above resistance targets the May 22 high at 1687.40, followed by the 100% expansion at 1710.90.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 1297.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, signaling indecision and warning that a pullback may be around the corner. Near-term support is at 1252.80, the 23.6% level, with a break beneath that eyeing swing lows at 1208.10 and 1180.15. Alternatively, a push above resistance exposes the 50% Fib at 1334.08.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 103.93, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break beneath that targeting a rising trend line at 102.18 and the 50% level at 100.05. Near-term resistance is at 107.41, the July 11 high.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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