THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the SP 500 failed to meaningful build on recoveries launched at the end of last week as prices ran into the first layer of technical resistance.
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A recovery has been mounted from a support cluster in the 10510-576 area, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the March 8 high, and a rising trend line set from mid-December 2012. A break above initial resistance at 10655 exposes the next upside barrier at 10697. Alternatively, a push below 10510 exposes the 50% Fib at 10397.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices bounced after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern at a support cluster marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1605.90) and a rising trend line set from mid-November 2012. A push above channel resistance (now at 1641.80) initially targets the 32.8% Fib expansion at 1655.40. Alternatively, a drop below the 1605.90 figure aims for the channel bottom at 1595.20 and the 38.2% retracement at 1555.50.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved lower as expected, taking out rising channel to challenge an upward-sloping trend line set from the April 16 low (now at 1380.59). A break below that initially eyes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1366.43. Channel support-turned-resistance is at 1403.26, with a move above that exposing the 50% Fib expansion at 1413.03.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke above resistance at 95.71, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 96.72-97.09 area marked by the 50% level and a falling trend line established from mid-September 2012. A break above that targets the 61.8% Fib at 98.47. The 95.71 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back beneath that eyeing the 23.6% expansion at 94.00.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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