THE TAKEAWAY: An attempted recovery from the US Dollar has been cut short at technical resistance while the SP 500 has pushed higher to challenge the May swing high.
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected, finding initial support at 10803 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern hints at the potential for renewed upside momentum. However, a Doji candle formed on a test of initial resistance at 10882 – the 23.6% level – points to indecision and injects a degree of doubt in bullish follow-through. Confirmation on a close above 10882 exposes the July 8 high at 11009. Alternatively, a reversal below support aims for the 50% Fib at 10739.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices moved higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break above resistance at 1678.40, the 78.6% Fibonacci expansion, has now exposed the May 22 high at 1687.40. A further move above this barrier targets the 100% level at 1710.90. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1678.40 sees support at 1652.90, the 61.8% Fib.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 1297.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, signaling indecision and warning that a pullback may be around the corner. Near-term support is at 1252.80, the 23.6% level, with a break beneath that eyeing swing lows at 1208.10 and 1180.15. Alternatively, a push above resistance exposes the 50% Fib at 1334.08.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 103.93, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break beneath that targeting a rising trend line at 102.18 and the 50% level at 100.05. The bearish candle setup would be invalidated on a close above 107.41, the July 11 high.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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