Talking Points:
- US Dollar Struggling to Find Direction in a Familiar Range
- SP 500 Looks Vulnerable After Setting Another Record High
- Crude Oil, Gold Prices Remain at Risk of a Bearish Reversal
Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are still struggling to find direction, with trading locked in a narrow consolidation range above support at a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above resistance at 10614, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, initially exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. Trend line support is now at 10559, with a reversal below that eyeing the February 17 low at 10520.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1863.60 to test rising channel top resistance at 1879.40. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% level at 1881.30. A break above the latter boundary exposes the 50% Fib at 1895.70. Emerging negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum and hints a turn lower may be ahead however. Sliding back below 1863.60 opens the door for another test of the channel floor, now at 1847.40.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at a falling trend line set from April 2013, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1313.14 exposes the 38.2% level at 1287.48. Trend line resistance is now at 1356.08.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, warning a downturn may be around the corner. As with gold, negative RSI divergence reinforces the likelihood of a reversal lower. Breaking rising trend line support at 102.82 targets the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 101.89, followed by the December 27 high at 100.73. Near-term resistance is at 105.19, the March 3 high.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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