Japanese Yen – Retail forex traders remain heavily long the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen as it tests key lows, and extremely low FX volatility suggests that the USDJPY may indeed trade higher.
Trade Implications – JPY Pairs: We most often prefer going against the crowd, and the fact that over 70 percent of retail traders are currently long USDJPY would normally lead us to sell. Yet our data shows that crowds tend to do well as FX volatility prices trade to major lows.
Risk is well-defined here; if we’re wrong and the USDJPY breaks down, a close below September lows of 98.50 would take us out of the trade at a relatively modest loss. Upside targets start at major congestion near 99.10 and the psychologically significant ¥100 mark.
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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