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USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 59.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.46 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jun 07 when USDCAD traded near 1.35095; price has moved 7.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.2% lower than yesterday and 16.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% lower than yesterday and 19.5% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDCAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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