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USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 53.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jul 18 when USDJPY traded near 113.901; price has moved 1.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.4% lower than yesterday and 2.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.6% lower than yesterday and 4.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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