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Talking Points:
- USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 107.89, 106.54, 105.45
- Resistance: 110.19, 110.65, 111.54
The US Dollar continues to oscillate in a choppy range below the 110.00 figure against the Japanese Yen. Near-term resistance is in the 110.08-19 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the October 1 high. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the August 15 2008 top at 110.65. Alternatively, a push through the 107.89-108.00 zone bracketed by the October 2 low and the 23.6% Fib retracement clears the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 106.54.
Positioning is inconclusive at this point. Negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing upside momentum and warns of losses but prices are too close to support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal argues against taking up the long side. We will remain flat for now.
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Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com