This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
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Weekly Price Time:
EUR/USD WEEKLY:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD overcame the 4th square root progression of the month-to-date low near 1.3200 this week to trade to its highest level in over a month
- Our medium-term trend bias remains lower, however, while below the 1.3415 2Q13 high
- The 5th square root progression of the year-to-date high at 1.3130 is key support and weakness below this level is required to signal a broader downside resumption in the pair
- Medium-term cycle studies point to the end of next week and the start of the week of August 5th as a potentially important inflection point where the downtrend could attempt to resume
- The 1.3415 2Q13 high is very significant from a Gann perspective and only a weekly close over this level alters the broader negative picture in place since June
Weekly Strategy: We like selling the Euro next week against 1.3415.
USD/JPY WEEKLY:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has moved steadily lower since failing at the start of the month near the 78.6% retracement of the May to June decline in the 101.60 area
- While above the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
- The 101.60 level is now a clear pivot and traction above this level is required to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
- Medium-term cycle analysis points to the middle of next week as being significant and a possible point from where the the longer-term trend will try to reassert its influence
- Weakness below .9375 on a weekly closing basis is needed to alter the broader positve technical picture and turn us negative on the rate
Strategy: We like tactical USD/JPY longs going into the turn window next week.
GBP/USD WEEKLY:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has traded steadily higher since finding support in late July at the 12th square root progression of the year-to-date high in the 1.4810 area
- However, while below the 2Q13 high at 1.5750 our longer-term trend bias will remain lower in Cable
- Fibonacci polarity at 1.5170 is a medium-term downside pivot, but weakness below 1.4810 is really required to confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend
- Medium-term cycle studies point to the middle of next week and a possible cycle turn window where the longer-term downtrend could attempt to reassert
- Only aggressive strength over 1.5750 would alter the negative technical structure and turn us positive on the Pound
Strategy: We like tactical short positions in Cable heading into the cycle turn window this week.
GOLD WEEKLY:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD traded to its highest level in over a month this week before finding strong resistance just below the 1348 161.8% projection of the late June/early July recovery
- While below the early June high near 1423 our longer-term trend bias will remain lower in the metal
- The 2nd square root progression of this week’s high near 1272 looks like a key downside pivot with weakness required to signal a resumption of the broader decline
- Medium-term cycle studies are now negative on the metal following the failure at Fibonacci symmetry during this week’s medium-term cycle turn window
- Strength over 1348 is needed to alter the negative cyclical picture and turn us positive on the metal
Strategy: We like tactical short positions in the metal while under 1348.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Markets Strategist for DailyFX.com
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX