Talking Points
- EUR/USD records new high for the year before encountering strong resistance
- USD/JPY trades at new 5-year high
- Gold stabilizes around 1200
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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD recorded a new high for the year on Friday before encountering resistance near the 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline
- Our broader bias is positive on the Euro while above 1.3660
- The 50% retracement of the 2008/2010 decline near 1.3955 is critical on the upside with traction above required to set off a more important move higher in 2014
- The upcoming week looks like an important cyclical inflection point for the exchange rate
- A move under the 8th square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.3660 would turn us negative on the Euro
Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to sell the Euro next week into the cycle turn window if ir reacts negatively.
Weekly Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY touched its highest level in over five years on Friday
- Our broader trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above 103.00
- The 61.8% retracement of the 2007/2011 decline at 105.55 is a potentially important inflection point with strength above needed to prolong the advance
- A medium-term cycle turn window is next week
- Only a move under 103.00 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like being long against 103.00
Weekly Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD closed at its lowest level of the year last week before finding support at the 1×2 Gann angle line of the 2012 high
- Our broader trend bias is negative in the metal while below the 1×2 Gann angle line of the August high now near 1243
- The year’s intraday low near 1180 is an important near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed to confirm a more important decline
- A medium-term cycle turn window is eyed around the end of the year
- A daily close back over 1243 is needed to turn us positive on Gold
Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square here.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX