Talking Points
- EUR/USD remains in recovery mode
- USD/JPY trades to highest level since early July
- Gold on key support level
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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has traded fairly steadily higher since finding support a couple of weeks ago at the 50% retracement of the July to October advance near 1.3290
- However, our broader bias remains negative on the Euro while below 1.3595
- The 1.3290 level remains a key downside pivot with weakness below needed to trigger a more material decline
- The 2nd week of December is the next material cycle turn window
- A move back through the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3595 would shift our broader trend bias to positive
Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding a tactical short position while below 1.3595.
Weekly Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY overcame the critical resistance at 100.65 to touch its highest level since early July this week
- Our broader trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above the 4th square root relationship of the years’ high at 99.65
- A convergence of several Gann and Fibonacci levels between 101.60 and 101.70 is the next big resistance zone of note
- A Gann cycle turn window is in effect over the next couple of days
- Only a move under 99.65 would shift the trend bias to negative in the exchange rate
Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like being long against 99.65.
Weekly Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD traded this week to its lowest level since early July
- Our broader trend bias is negative on the metal and will remain so while below 1322
- The 5th square root relationship of the August high at 1243 is an important downside pivot with a close below needed to signal a downside continuation
- The first half of next month is the next important cycle turn window
- A daily close back over a confluence of Gann and Fibonacci levels in the 1322 area will turn us positive on the metal
Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square here.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX