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Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

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  • British Pound speculators recently flipped to a net short position
  • Yen positioning is nearing May extreme
  • Crude specs remain overwhelmingly long despite decline

View COT data in MT4

Latest CFTC Release dated November 12, 2013:

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_usd.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_eur.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_GBP.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian Dollar

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_AUD.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese Yen

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_JPY.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian Dollar

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_cad.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_chf.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mexican Peso

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_mxn.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_gold.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Silver

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_silver.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_copper.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude

Yen_COT_Positioning_Closes_in_on_May_Level_body_crude.png, Yen COT Positioning Closes in on May Level

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Subscribe to Jamie Saettele’s distribution list in order to receive actionable FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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