Connect with us

Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Big Move Coming in USD/CAD?

Published

on

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

USD/CHF:

PT_cad_Move_body_Picture_4.png, Price amp; Time: Big Move Coming in USD/CAD?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/CHF touched its lowest level in 3 weeks on Monday before finding support at the 4th square root progression of the year-to-date low in the .9400 area

Our bias is lower in the exchange rate, but weakness below .9400 is needed soon to maintain the downside tack

-Medium-term cycle relationships seem to favor general weakness into the second half of next week

-The 3rd square root progression of the year-to-date high at .9540 is immediate resistance

-However, only strength over the 50% retracement of the most recent decline from the year-to-date high at .9620 would signal a broader upside resumption

Strategy: The decline in USD/CHF doesn’t look over. Like selling on strength whilst below .9620.

NZD/USD:

PT_cad_Move_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Big Move Coming in USD/CAD?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

NZD/USD tested the 8th square root progression of the year-to-date high last week at .7940 before rebounding

-The advance has so far been unimpressive and while below the 6th square root progression of the year’s high at .8120 our bias remains lower in the Bird

-The .7940 area looks like formidable support and a clear breach of this zone is needed soon to keep the downtrend moving forward

-The short-term cyclical picture is a bit muddled, but a Gann related turn window is in effect next week

-Immediate resistance is seen around .8030, but only a close over .8120 turns us positive on the Kiwi and suggests a more important change in trend is afoot

Strategy: Short positions are favored while the rate is below .8120, but we like reducing them near these support levels. Chance of a turn going into next week.

EUR/GBP:

PT_cad_Move_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Big Move Coming in USD/CAD?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/GBP failed several times over the past few weeks at the 78.6% retracement of the late April decline in the .8585 area

Subsequent weakness has been unimpressive and a close under the 50% retracement of the May range in the .8500 area is required to turn us negative

-Near-term focused time cycles suggest a minor turn window will be in effect over the second half of the week

-Traction over .8585 is needed to signal the start of a more important advance

-A close below .8500 exposes .8440 and below

Strategy: Has been effectively range bound since the start of April. Difficult to get too excited about its prospects either way until the range is eclipsed.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

PT_cad_Move_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Big Move Coming in USD/CAD?

The successful test of the 1.0260/70 retracement confluence in Funds during the Pi cycle turn window at the start of the week suggests a cycle inversion. A clear breach of Monday’s 1.0370 high would further confirm this growing suspicion and setup a potentially strong upward thrust towards 1.0440 and above (and not to mention set off a likely false pattern breakout of the ‘head shoulders’ pattern on the daily chart). On the flip side, any weakness below 1.0260 would immediately offset this burgeoning positive cyclicality and signal the start of a much more important corrective process in USD/CAD. Said another way – Monday’s range looks significant and a clear break of it should set off the next real directional move.

Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Euro in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

on

By

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

on

By

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

on

By

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.