Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Euro Within Striking Distance of A New Yearly High
Talking Points
- EUR/USD closing in on a new YTD high
- GBP/USD testing important Gann resistance
- Kiwi stalls at important Fibonacci level
To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.
Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD
The successful hold of the 1.3475 Gann support level in EUR/USD on Wednesday has prompted an aggressive move higher over the past couple of days putting the Euro within striking distance of new year-to-date highs. Our best guess from a short-term cycle standpoint is that general strength will persist into the cycle turn window seen around the second half of next week before more legitimate medium-term topping prospects materialize. Respectively, the 9th and 10th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3770 and 1.3880 will act as natural attractions during this timeframe. Only unexpected aggressive weakness below 1.3595 would warn that the single currency has peaked ahead of schedule. From a longer-term perspective the middle of November remains an important potential turn window for the Euro.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD found support Wednesday at the 9th square root progression of the year’s low near 1.5895
- Subsequent strength back over 1.6135 has shifted our near-term trend bias to positive in Cable
- Immediate attention is on the 8×1 Gann angle line of the year’s highs at 1.6225 with a close above needed to prompt the next important push higher in the rate
- A minor turn window is seen early next week
- Only a daily close below Gann support at 1.6085 would undermine the immediate positive tone and focus lower
GBP/USD Strategy: Square here. Looking to buy on weakness.
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD traded to its highest level since early May on Thursday before encountering resistance at the 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range in the .8525 area
- Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the Bird while over .8340
- The .8525 level looks like formidable resistance and a clear break above is needed to signal a resumption of the underlying trend
- A minor turn window is seen at the start of next week
- Only a daily close below the 2nd square root progresssion of Thursday’s high at .8340 would turn us negative on the Kiwi
NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over.8340.
Price Time Analysis: SP 500
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- SP 500 has moved aggressively higher over the past couple of weeks after finding support at the 2nd square root progression of September high in the 1650 area
- Our near-term trend bias is positive on on the index while over 1710
- The 5th square root progression of the June low at 1743 is the next resistance of note with a move through there exposing Fibonacci attractions at 1758
- The first and latter part of next week are minor turn windows in the index
- Only a close below the 4th square root progression of the June low at 1710 would turn us negative on the SP 500
SP 500 Strategy: Like the long side while over 1710.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients