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Price & Time: USD/CAD Holding Up Well

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Talking Points

  • Price Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price Time
  • EUR/USD nearing critical near-term pivot
  • USD/CAD holds key support line

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price amp; Time: USD/CAD Holding Up Well

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has treaded steadily lower since failing last week at the 61.8% retracement of the May – July range near 1.1215
  • Yesterday’s close below 1.1040 has shifted our near-term bias to negative on the rate
  • A Gann angle line from the March low comes into play around 1.1000 and this looks to an important downside pivot for EUR/USD
  • A minor turn window is eyed today/tomorrow
  • A daily close above 1.1215 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Square for now.

Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price amp; Time: USD/CAD Holding Up Well

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded at its highest level in over a month yesterday, but stalled at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the June high around 1.5720
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on cable while below 1.5720
  • A move below Fibonacci support around 1.5560 is needed to re-instill some downside momentum in the rate
  • The latter half of next week looks important from a cyclical perspective
  • A daily close above 1.5720 would turn us positive on the pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Square for now.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

Price amp; Time: USD/CAD Holding Up Well

USD/CAD remains in consolidation mode below the recent 1.3212 multi-year high. Following the breakout last month above the 2009 high the broader technical outlook is generally favorable with a move through 1.3212 needed to break the current impasse and unlock a medium-term run higher towards the 61.8% retracement of the 2002 – 2007 decline near 1.3500. The setback from the high has been relatively tame thus far as the low end of a median line channel drawn from the May low has supported downside attempts well. A daily close below this level (currently at 1.3045) would be an early warning sign that the correction is gaining traction, but only a clear break of last week’s low at 1.2950 would turn the near-term technical picture more acutely negative for funds.

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Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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