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US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as S&P 500 Sinks

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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to push higher, with prices on track to challenge the May swing high, while the SP 500 continues to push lower after breaching support.

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices found interim support above a rising trend line set from late February and launched a sharp recovery, with the bulls now challenging the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 10781. A further push higher targets May 29 swing high at 10877. The 61.8% Fib at 10721 is acting as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 50% retracement at 10673.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as Samp;P 500 Sinks

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices dropped through a support cluster marked by rising trend lines set from mid-November 2012 and February of this year, with sellers now testing the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1585.80. A further push beneath that aims for the 100% level at 1564.60. Alternatively, a recovery above the 1600 figure sees trend line support-turned-resistance at 1608.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as Samp;P 500 Sinks

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices dove sharply lower, with sellers now testing the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1273.77. A break beneath that exposes the 123.6% level at 1238.38. Near-term resistance is at 1309.16, the 76.4% Fib, followed by the 61.8% expansion at 1331.05.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as Samp;P 500 Sinks

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing support in the 93.11-55 area, marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from mid-April. A break beneath that exposes an alternative upward-sloping barrier set from the May 1 low, now at the 92.00 figure, followed by the June 3 bottom at 91.23. Near-term resistance is at 94.27, the 61.8% Fib.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as Samp;P 500 Sinks

8hr Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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