Connect with us

Analys från DailyFX

Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

Published

on

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The US Dollar is experiencing a mild pullback overnight after tremendous gains in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) the past several days, all thanks to the Bank of Japan’s decision to ratchet up its QE program to the torrid pace of $200B/month. Certainly, the Yen’s fundamental standing has been dramatically weakened now that the BoJ has thrown down the gauntlet ahead of the April 8 reconfirmation – a sign that Governor Kuroda and his board are confident that their standing will be reaffirmed by opposition party DPJ.

Now, after the weak March labor market reading on Friday, the US Dollar is on softer ground, and with the 2s10s Treasury yield spread remaining compressed, markets may be signaling that the 2Q’13 may be a period of softer growth for the world’s largest economy. We could credit the slowdown in growth to the combined ripples of the fiscal cliff and the budget sequestration: higher taxes and lower government spending, both of which on their own have a negative impact on headline GDP.

Amid the lighter calendar to start the week, the Euro has continued to rally, finding continued fuel in ECB President Draghi’s most recent ‘line in the sand’ comment that there is “no plan B” for the Euro. This second ‘final stand’ – the first being his “whatever it takes” comment in July 2012 – provides a near-term bullish catalyst for the Euro. With North American labor market data disappointing so dramatically on Friday, the next week or so could be characterized by near-term countertrend moves; i.e., a stronger EURCAD.

Taking a look at European credit, slightly higher peripheral yields have held back the Euro’s modest advance on Tuesday. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 1.490% (+4.1-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.099% (+9.0-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.348% (+1.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.716% (-0.3-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:50 GMT

AUD: +0.43%

JPY: +0.38%

GBP: +0.29%

EUR:+0.22%

NZD:+0.20%

CAD:+0.06%

CHF:-0.03%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.32% (+0.49%past 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_7.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

EURUSD: I maintain: “As I do not find the bailout terms favorable to long-lasting Euro strength, the “top” after the bailout could now be in place. Fresh yearly lows were set below 1.2800 at the time of writing [last Wednesday], with a clear test of 1.2660/80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement on July 2012 to February 2013 rally, mid-November swing lows) in focus. A bearish bias holds so long as 1.3025 holds this week.” A Bear Flag may have formed on the daily chart against 1.2880, pointing to a move lower to 1.2660/80.

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

USDJPY: The sell-off may be over now that the BoJ has jumped the gun and increased its asset purchase program. The USDJPY cleared the descending trendline off of the March 12 and March 20 highs, at 95.00/15. Topside risks are now in play, with 96.00/20 eyed to the upside, followed by 96.60/80 and 97.60/80. Support comes in at 94.20 and 92.50/75.

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

GBPUSD: Last week I said: “The failed run up to the 1.5285/375 region suggests that the rally in the GBPUSD seen the past few weeks may be nothing more than short covering and asset reallocation, rather than traders taking up new positions amid an improved interest rate outlook for the UK. Price has fallen back below the 8- and 21-EMAs after a rejection at a critical RSI level of 55…A potential Bearish Rising Wedge has developed (clearer on the 4H timeframe, which would suggest a retest of the lows near 1.4830. The pattern is valid so long as 1.5260/65 holds to the upside.” Price has moved lower, initiating both the Double Top and Bearish Rising Wedge patterns.

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

AUDUSD:Early last week I said: “The AUDUSD uptrend remains, but after rejection in the critical 1.0475/535 region, the uptrend is being tested at 1.0435,” then on Thursday, “Now that price has closed below 1.0435, a further pullback to 1.0370/95 is in scope before buying interest returns.” Price fell to 1.0385 – my target zone – and rebounded firmly back to the 1.0475/535 zone. Failure here would initiate a Double Top pattern, pointing to a retest of 1.0250/75. A break of 1.0475/535 points to 1.0600/35 higher.

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_2.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

SP 500: No change: “The near-term set back at 1530 took place for less than two weeks, but the break higher hasn’t been marked by high volume; no, it has been a volumeless rally, with the breakout occurring on volumes around 80% of the daily average in 2013. This is not a ‘technically strong move.’ The float higher could continue, towards the all-time high at 1576.1, but might be cut short in the 1565/70 zone, where two key Fibonacci extensions lay. I’m very skeptical up here – markets seem to be ignoring Italy and the derisive politics in the United States at the moment (this also happened in 2011 and 2012 at the beginning of those years).”

Yen_Finds_Footing_For_Now_EURUSD_Trades_Sideways_Amid_Light_Data_body_Picture_1.png, Yen Finds Footing, For Now; EURUSD Trades Sideways Amid Light Data

GOLD: No change: “Gold broke below trendline support off of the January 2011 and May 2012 lows at 1650 last week, prompting a sharp sell-off into 1600, where price broke out in mid-August before a rally into the post-QE3 high at 1785/1805. However, with oversold conditions persisting on the 4H and daily timeframes, a rebound should not be ruled out; each of the past two daily RSI oversold readings has produced a rally in short order. Resistance is 1625 and 1645/50. Support is 1585 and 1555/60. It should be noted that Gold has entered a major support zone from the past 18-months from 1520 to 1575.”

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

on

By

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

on

By

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

on

By

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.