Analys från DailyFX

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Bulls May Soon Have Reason to Cheer

Published

9 år ago

4 februari, 2016

DailyFX

Interested In our Analyst’s Longer-Term Oil Outlook, be sure to sign up for our free oil guide here.

Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Oil Looking To Push Past Key Resistance Level at $34.79/bbl
The Offered US Dollar Further Puts Support Under Oil’s Advance
WTI Is Starting To Divorce from Leading Risk Sentiment, Which Further Supports US Oil Bulls

Turnaround Tuesday

While starting the week on a sour note, Crude Oil jumped to its highest percentage rise since the move from the August low with Tuesday’s turnaround. Most of the attribution is being tied to the incredible weakness in the US Dollar, which dropped by its largest margin since Janet Yellen squelched hopes of a rate hike in March, which sent the US Dollar lower for 2-months before it could regain footing against other currencies. Because the US Dollar is the quoted currency in Oil, a stronger dollar buys more Oil per dollar and causes the price of Oil in dollar terms to fall. The opposite is true when Oil rises.

On the fundamental front, not a lot happened to change the attitude of the Oil market. Companies as Shell continues to see profits drop and little end in sight for cap-ex reductions as many expect a ‘Lower for Longer’ environment regarding the price of crude. However, many have been looking for a low, and the short-term low of January 20 looks like a good one if the US Dollar can continue to fall as we have seen mightily against Oil-correlated currencies like the Canadian Dollar.

The takeaway from the last 24 hours or 24 months is never to underestimate the value of the US Dollar on the price impact of Oil.

There Is Nothing New Under the Sun, Including (Especially) in Markets

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Bulls May Soon Have Reason to Cheer

Trade Oil with no re-quotes, learn more HERE (non-US residents only)

Key Levels from Here

Last note, we shared how the recently higher low of 29.23 should hold if US Oil bulls were to gain ground. Given yesterday’s sharp move from the low of 29.38, we will look at that level to hold on a move higher from here. Resistance will remain at last week’s price high of $34.79, and if Bullish momentum is to remain at all, that price should break as well. While some view the late January move was little more than a ‘dead cat bounce,’ the continuation of US Dollar weakness could quiet their views. If last week’s price high does not hold the price down we will keep an eye on the YTD high of $38.36 to help affirm the view that January 20 was a price bottom of some degree.

Sentiment Flip Warns of Further Short-Term Upside

In addition to the fundamental and technical pressure that Oil still has on its back, the bearish view aligns with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI. Our internal readings of Oil are showing an SSI reading of 1.3221. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are now bullish provides a signal that US Oil may continue lower, and attempt to break the support levels mentioned above. If the reading were to turn negative again, and the price broke back above $34.78bbl, we could begin looking for a retest of the YTD high of $38.36.

T.Y.

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form