Analys från DailyFX

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bounce Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace?

Published

9 år ago

7 mars, 2016

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Selling the Rip Remains Favored Play on USD Weakness [insert link]
Trader Sentiment Favors Further CAD Strength
Oil Direction Increasingly Bullish As Trader’s Question If Feb. 11 Was The Low

Canadian Dollar Has the Wind at Its Back

The Canadian Dollar is having its best run in term of pips gained against the US Dollar since 2011/2012. Now, the question becomes whether or not the positively correlated WTI Crude Oil continues to push higher and closer to 2016 highs will propel the Canadian Dollar higher. On March 09, the Bank of Canada will meet and let the market know if they are going to stop the Canadian Dollar’s Bull Run or encourage it further. For now, it is fair to say that if Oil continues its path higher and the Bank of Canada does not talk the CAD lower, we could see USD/CAD pressing below 1.3000. To see our long-term Oil Outlook, check it out here.

Weekly USD/CAD Chart May Favor A Deeper Retracement Than Originally Expected

USD/CAD has touched the 200-DMA for the first time since early September 2014. Since the last move above the 200-dma, USD/CAD moved from roughly 1.0900 up to ~1.4690. This reversal could be a large move in progress and in the making.

The title of ‘Bounce Now or Forever Hold Your Peace,’ is due to the multiple forms of support that we’re sitting at on the chart.

You can see that we have also retraced roughly 50% of the May-January range. Now, a move below support near 1.3280, the 200-dma, signals a move toward the 61.8% of the range above is slightly under 1.3000 at 1.2977. This move may also find support at the 2009 former range highs. These levels are giving way further validate the behavior change that we have been warning traders of happening.

Resistance to Watch

Short-term resistance on USD/CAD aligns with 1.3500, which is the March 7, 2016, weekly R1 Pivot. Beyond 1.3500, resistance moves toward the 1.3650 zone, which was support throughout February before the recent low gave way, and is also the Weekly R2 Pivot. If the price stays below these key levels, the Canadian Dollar rebound could align aggressively with risk and oil.

Canadian Dollar Rally is Set to Last per Sentiment

When looking at sentiment, crowd sentiment has moved positive providing favor for more downside. We use our Speculative Sentiment Index as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are net-long at a bull: bear 1.40 means a bearish USD/CAD signal is currently at play. Now that the price has broken below the 100-dma, we are forced to stare at the 200-dma. A break below this new key support metric and a move further into positive territory on the SSI would favor further downside towards downside targets mentioned above.

Combining the technical picture above, with the sentiment picture, and the Intermarket analysis support further warns of more CAD gains ahead.

USD/CAD Speculative Sentiment Index as of 3/7/2016

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T.Y.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form