Analys från DailyFX

Silver Prices: Much to Be Learned in a Retracement

Published

9 år ago

7 oktober, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver fails to bounce of confluence of support, which led to…
A smaller level of support at 17.12, which is holding at this time
Silver is viewed bearish on a bounce into the 17.70s, a period of congestion could develop

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On Wednesday, we noted a confluence of support in the upper 17s which consisted of the trend-line running up from January, horizontal peaks running back to May 2015, as well as a lower parallel extending back to early July.

This is what we had to say regarding support in our last post:“Solid confluence doesn’t mean it will hold, though, but does present another important inflection point. The move looks overdone in the short-run, but the velocity at which the break happened and the resulting big, bad daily bar created suggests support may not hold for long.”

And so it was, support only held momentarily. Wednesday, silver attempted to bounce, but buyers were unsuccessful in their efforts. The feeble bounce led to a key break of support into our next noted level of support around 17.12, tagging it almost to the exact penny (yesterday’s low was 17.118).

Today, prior to the monthly US jobs report, we are seeing an attempt to bounce from support, but expectations of a bounce to develop far beyond the upper 17s are low without first seeing another attempt by the market to push it lower. Should a bounce develop into prior support turned resistance and silver loses momentum, traders may look to use this as an opportunity for entering short.

A period of consolidation (choppy trading) is a scenario we must consider given the precipitous drop experienced the last couple of weeks. If silver fails to carve out anything resembling a flush-out low and moves sideways for a period of time, it would be a sign buyers are unwilling to step in at these prices and signal that the metal is likely resting for another shove lower. Trade below the 17.12 support level clears a path towards an inflection zone surrounding 16.

Silver: Daily

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For now, we will wait see how silver responds to the current decline, as chasing after a sharp decline into support is more often than not a losing proposition. In these situations, it’s best to wait and see how the market responds following such a drastic move. As ‘they’ say, “there is much to be learned in the retracement.”

Heads up: At 12:30 GMT, the US jobs report is due out. The NFP figure for September is expected at 172k while the unemployment rate remains even at 4.9% and an uptick in average hourly earnings to 2.6% YoY from 2.4% YoY.

Check out our Q4 forecasts as well as other trading guides aimed at traders of all experience levels.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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