Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500: Tight-roping Support, Time Is Running Thin

Published

9 år ago

18 oktober, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The SP 500 is teetering around support
The market needs to soon turn up, risk of failure continues to rise
Short-term view and operating mindset

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In yesterday’s action, the SP 500 followed through a bit on Friday’s reversal off the mid-2140s, an area the market held as support over the course of a couple of weeks to end September and begin October but recently turned into resistance once breached.

The market is at a crossroads and needs to decide soon what it wants to do. The SP is teetering around or just below the Feb 11 trend-line (depends on how you have it drawn) and just above the 6/8 high, 9/12 low.

Because the market is trading around a pivotal point and finding it difficult to garner much interest, the feeling on this end is that a rally needs to develop soon or else the market will lose confidence and take another dive lower. If this becomes the case, the first level of support will come in at the lower parallel off the 8/23 high (~2100 at this time), then a lower parallel running back to earlier in the year (~2080).

On the flip-side, if the SP can get into gear soon (very soon) and find itself above the mid-2140s and firmly back above the Feb 11 trend-line, a rally could start to unfold. But the market will have its work cut out for it until it can chew through the chop-fest over the past few weeks and above the upper parallel off the 8/23 high.

SP 500: Daily

Created with Tradingview

Bringing the short-term into view: The SP futures are trading higher in overnight trade, currently treading near a resistance zone and trend-line off the 10/10 swing high. A shove lower off resistance will bring into view the rising trend-line off the 10/13 swing low. The two converging trend-lines may develop into a triangle worth operating off of. If a triangle develops, it would appear most likely a downside break would unfold, but as per usual, we will react to the direction of the pattern breakout rather than predict it.

SPX (24-hr): Hourly

Created with Tradingview

Trades in recent weeks (months) have mostly been best left to those operating with hold times of a few hours to a couple of days. The approach we have found best is taking trades off key levels/lines with the thinking that those trades will need to be exited upon arriving at the next set of levels. Expectations of momentum developing remain kept in check. We continue to view the market with a “taketh what the market giveth” mindset until broader clarity presents itself.

Check out our Q4 forecasts for FX, commodities, and indices.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form