Analys från DailyFX

DAX Drops into Trend-line Support, Hourly Chart in View

Published

9 år ago

2 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The DAX drops hard into June trend-line
Needs to quickly find support or increases likelihood of sustaining additional losses
60-minute chart in view with short-term levels and notations

In yesterday’s session, the DAX gapped higher by about 40 points and quickly found sellers above the 10/28 high. The resulting gap-n-trap sell-off ended with the index dropping hard to close the session at the trend-line running up off the late-June lows.

The next couple of days are important, with trend support at hand the DAX needs to quickly turn higher or run the risk of further losses. Big sell-off days like yesterday, regardless of support or not, are difficult to reverse quickly without probing lower first. While sellers may push the DAX below trend-line support on an intra-day basis, the daily close is what will matter the most. Early indications from the futures market suggests this will be the case, with the futures off by about 49 points at the time of writing.

A hold of key support still keeps the trend-line intact, but there will be work to be done to turn the tides back in favor of longs. A move below clears a path towards the next swing low at 10349 created on 10/13.

DAX: Daily

Created with Tradingview

Looking at the 60-minute chart, we clearly see the path of least resistance off the 10/25 high is down with the descending channel in place. Support comes in at the 10/17 swing low and lower parallel off the 10/25 highs (~10490), which is also in the vicinity of the June trend-line. A drop below 10490 will bring the 10/14 gap into play between 10405 and 10450. The next significant swing low doesn’t arrive until the 10/13 low at 10349.

A reversal back higher off support could run the DAX into resistance at lows in place back to 10/19 and the backside of a broken trend-line off the 9/30 swing lows. The two intercept in the vicinity of ~10580/600. A little further above there, the top-side parallel off the 10/25 highs could come into play.

DAX: 60-min

Created with Tradingview

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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