Analys från DailyFX

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Catapults to 200-DMA Resistance

Published

9 år ago

10 november, 2016

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: move through 200-DMA likely signals strong follow-through
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield had largest intraday move on Wednesday
Gold Reversal Shows Dumping Of Haven Assets

USD/JPY has become a focal post-election trade alongside EUR/USD and XAU/USD. All of these markets have been correlated over the last year as a weak USD has a significant impact on all three markets. We noted yesterday, and earlier this week in our webinars that options exposure that was likely triggered on the victory of President-Elect Trump. However, these executed trades were quickly reversed.

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On my post-election webinar,we discussed how similar the move in style though not the magnitude of the SNB de-pegging of EUR/CHF on January 15, 2015. In short, you had a massive move down in the USD vs. the CHF that then become almost immediately reversed. In those scenarios, no-one really wins during the volatility, but the rejection of one directional move helps to explain the undertones and trends in the market that are worth following.

USD/JPY has had multiple rejections of 99/101 zone, which may be indicative of either intervention from Japan to sell the JPY or unwillingness for institutions to hold long JPY positions against the USD below 101. Either way, we have seen a sharp move higher in US Yields that has helped fuel the USD rally. While there is an expectation that this move will retrace somewhat, the trend may be shifting higher as we look at the charts. The move higher in yields also aligns with the sharp reversal in Gold prices from Wednesday morning.

D1 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Has Arrived At Long-Term Resistance Shortly After U.S. Election

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT, Courtesy of TradingView

USD/JPY has tested and aggressively pushed off of the 99/101 zone multiple times since the Brexit vote was confirmed on June 24. The Thursday high took us momentarily above the 200-DMA at 106.583 and about 50 pips short of the post-Brexit July high at 107.49.

Further pressure on these levels would likely be met with a rushin of bids or fear of missing out a trade that could keep USD/JPY bid through the 107.49 high. Two indicators that have been helpful in addition to the zone of support of 99/101 is the Ichimoku Cloud and the Andrew’s Pitchfork channel tool.

The Ichimoku Cloud continues to support the price on a closing basis although the sharp initial sell-off on early Wednesday morning trading that we mentioned above was likely due to option exercises. Should the price continue to close above the Ichimoku Cloud, there is little reason to fight the potential for a strong base developing.

Lastly, Andrew’sPitchfork above is drawn off of key pivots that are made from the 2015 high, August 24 low and the lowerhigh in November. This Pitchfork has done an outstanding job of framing price action and keeping our focus lower. As of mid-day Thursday, the price is sitting at the top of the channel, which it has not traded near since the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates on January 29, which was then proceeded by a sharp decline in the pair as the JPY advanced across the board.

Wednesday’s sharp move lower is being treated as part a bottoming process. The Bullish view that I’m holding would be validated on a close above the resistance levels mentioned above at 106.63/107.49.

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: November 10, 2016

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Catapults to 200-DMA Resistance

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form