Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500 – Bulls Gain Confidence On Trendline Break, New Highs In Sight

Published

9 år ago

11 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Post-Trump Rally puts 2016 Range For SPX ~20%
All-Time Highs in US30 may pull SP 500 Higher Too
Dollar strength may be a blessing this time around

In yesterday’s piece, we noted the impressive rip higher after a locked-limit reversed higher throughthe August trend-line. Since the 2009 low, retracement buyers have been richly rewarded in equities, and that trend looks to continue. The break above the Trendline resistance that started with the August high shows the path of least resistance looks higher once again.

What is surprising many is the subsequent rise in yields, equities, and USD post-election. Much of this has to do with speculation of repatriation of capital to the US that may be in anticipation of lower corporate taxes and new trade agreements drawn up by President-Elect Trump’s administration. The old macro view had been set that USD strength was bad for equities and tended to align with UST yields falling on a risk-off view that meant more Federal Reserve easing.

However, you can see a sharp move higher in yields that has tallied a greater than 20% rise since from the intra-day November low on election night. This move higher in yields is aligningwith the US Dollar trading at 9-month highs with DXY above 99. The three markets aligning higher show expectations of fiscal stimulus that could lead to inflation alongside favorable tax reform and looser regulation that may continue to boost a rotation from the overinflated bond market into equities. This story has been credited for pushing the DJIA (CFD: Wall Street) to new all-time highs.

SP 500: Daily

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The Daily SP 500 shows the larger trend higher within the Andrew’s Pitchfork, and a recent break higher above the Ichimoku Cloud and Trendline resistance drawn of the lower-highs starting in September.

You’ll also notice the strong move higher off the 200-DMA (2089) that favors continuation higher on the back of the fundamental factors underpinning the move. While the move higher may continue to unfold in a choppy manner, we’ll keep the focus on the intraday all-time high from August of 2193 followed by 2199 calculated breakout target.

Beyond these Bullish Targets, the 1.272% Fibonacci Expansion of the May 2015-February 2016 range sits at 2222. Support in focus will be the broken trendline near the May ’15 high at 2135. A break below 2136 would open up focus on the 200-DMA at 2089, which isn’t expected to be tested in the current macro environment.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Friday, November 11, 2016

Samp;P 500 – Bulls Gain Confidence On Trendline Break, New Highs In Sight

Check out Trading Guides and Forecasts designed for traders of all experience levels.

—Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form