Analys från DailyFX

Silver Prices Expected to Continue Lower, NFP Friday Up Next

Published

9 år ago

1 december, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Silver looking to make good on the bearish reversal day on Monday
16.18 held twice last week, a break expected to lead to a quick drop into the 16/15.80 target zone
US jobs data due out tomorrow

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Earlier in the week we discussed Monday’s bearish reversal day in silver prices, and asked whether or not it would lead to the same outcome as last week (immediately lower prices following the bearish reversal bar on 11/22), or was there possibly a bullish scenario setting up behind the scenes on the intra-day time-frame. As per usual, we gave the benefit of the doubt to the higher time-frame, and thus far this has been the correct view.

Since Monday, silver prices have weakened a bit, and while not as quickly as they did following the reversal bar on 11/22, the outcome is generally the same – lower. Yesterday’s failure to push higher again helps forge the case for shorts.

Gold has been the better market for sellers, however, with major support in the 1190/1200 region having been broken last week and the metal unable to recapture. We are still looking for our comparable support zone in silver, 16/15.80. It’s taking some time to get there, but the path of least resistance suggests we will see it sooner rather than later. At this time, it would require a close back above the Monday high of 16.86 for us to consider alternative paths.

On the downside, 16.18 held on two different days last week, and has become a short-term line-in-the-sand. The double hold to almost the penny tells us that a break is likely to lead to a quick drop into our target zone very quickly thereafter.

Silver: Daily

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Data heads up: Tomorrow, the monthly US jobs data will be released at 13:30 GMT. The market is looking for a NFP figure of 175k for November, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. Also of interest will be the participation rate and signs of wage inflation via the average hourly earnings, which is currently at 2.8% YoY. The outcome of the jobs report could be the catalyst to see silver to our target. With that said, though, don’t expect lasting follow-through on the jobs data with the market (via Fed fund futures) pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting.

Join Paul tomorrow at 10 GMT time for a look at his NFP game-plan, as well as charts of interest. For a full list of live events, please see our webinar calendar.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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