Analys från DailyFX
S&P 500 Tech Update: Bid Likely to Remain Firm
What’s inside:
- The SP 500 held and trading higher off key support at 2194/87
- Looking for the market to continue to hold a bid
- Global risk appetite is supportive, end of year forces also at work
For trade ideas and educational resources, check out Trading Guides.
The title of Monday’s post was, “Will the Market Respect Support This Week?”. So far, the answer has been, yes. The support zone we had penciled in at 2194/87 will be our line-in-the-sand for the foreseeable future.
Yesterday, the Dow and Russell 2000 both notched out new record high closing prints, while the Nasdaq Composite trails not far behind. The Nasdaq 100, largely dominated by several large-cap favorites (GOOG, FB, AMZN, APPL, NFLX) is the only potential concern, as those leading stocks may indicate ‘hidden’ weakness. But a rotation back into the market darlings could take shape and negate the bearish divergence we are currently seeing. For now, it’s a concern on the backburners, with general risk appetite healthy.
Looking globally, the Nikkei is still holding strong on its surge following the U.S. presidential election, while Europe is being led by the CAC and DAX. The CAC broke out yesterday, the DAX today. Barring a failure by day’s end in Germany, the breakout is significant. This adds to an already solid appetite for risk. Year-end forces are also at work here, so seasonality through to January is likely to help keep a bid in the market.
The trend in the SP is firmly higher, but don’t hold your breath for a rip-roaring rally. Typically, these advances into record territory happen in a slow, grinding fashion. With that said, as long as we don’t see any type of swift reversal event and break in trend (i.e. lower low beneath 2187) the technical structure will remain constructive. Minor resistance around the Feb ’15 trend-line shouldn’t pose much of a threat moving forward, while the Feb trend-line from this year may act as short-term resistance upon another touch at higher prices.
SP 500: Daily
Created with Tradingview
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Diesel concerns drags Brent lower but OPEC+ will still get the price it wants in Q3
- ’wait and see’ mode
- Also OPEC+ wants to get compensation for inflation
- Nat gas to EUA correlation will likely switch to negative in 2026/27 onward
- Fear that retaliations will escalate but hopes that they are fading in magnitude
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients