Analys från DailyFX
CAC 40 Declines on Election Jitters
Talking Points:
- CAC 40 Declines on Election Jitters
- Sentiment Figures Remain Negative; IG Client Sentiment at -1.89
- Looking for additional trade ideas for equities markets? Read our 2017 Market Forecast
The CAC 40 is trading significantly lower today (-1.18%), as European markets begin to have concerns amid election uncertainty in France. Traders should note that the first round of the French presidential election will be held on April 23rd. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff is then slated for May 7th. As these dates approach, traders may continue to look for market volatility to increase. At this point, only one listed stock on the CAC 40 is trading higher. SAFRAN is currently trading up +0.27%. Top Losers for the Index include both ArcelorMittal (-5.97%) and Carrefour (-3.68%).
Technically with today’s decline, the CAC 40 is again trading back below its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average) at 5,076.75. This move suggests that the Index is again trading in a short term downtrend, despite Monday’s rebound in price. Currently, today’s intraday low is found at 4,992.80. The Index however has bounced from this point, to again find support above the psychological 5,000.00 level. In the upcoming day’s preceding the election, traders should continue to monitor the 5,000.00 level. A bounce above this point may suggest a short term rebound for the Index, while a bearish breakout next exposes the March 22nd swing low at 4,952.70.
CAC 40, Daily Chart with 10 Day EMA
Sentiment totals for the CAC 40 (Ticker: France 40) remain near negative extremes this Tuesday.Currently IG Client Sentiment reads at -1.89 with 34.7% of traders long the Index. While this sentiment total is negative, traders should note that today’s total has significantly shifted from last week’s reading of -3.62. If the CAC 40 continues to decline further this week, traders may look for these sentiment totals to eventually flip to a positive reading. Alternatively, if the CAC 40 finds support in the upcoming sessions, sentiment totals may remain negative and shift back to extremes of -2.0 or more.
Want to learn more about trading with market sentiment? Get our Free guide here.
— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To Receive Walkers’ analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
See Walker’s most recent articles at hisBio Page.
Contact and Follow Walker on Twitter @WEnglandFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Crude oil comment: US inventories remain well below averages despite yesterday’s build
- China is turning the corner and oil sentiment will likely turn with it
- Crude oil comment: Europe’s largest oil field halted – driving prices higher
- Crude oil comment: Mixed U.S. data skews bearish – prices respond accordingly
- Crude oil comment: Fundamentals back in focus, with OPEC+ strategy crucial for price direction
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke