Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Surges from Support on French Election, Now Faces Resistance

Published

8 år ago

25 april, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE rips hard with global markets following first round of French elections
Currently at resistance, but momentum favorable for a push on through
Levels and lines of interest noted

Can the rally in global equity markets continue through Q2?See our forecast for details on what’s driving markets.

Yesterday, we saw a sharp rally in global indices from Asia to Europe to North America as the outcome of first round of the French elections sparked a global risk-on environment. As we noted in the weekly forecast, the FTSE 100 ended last week on key support around 7100; which once represented the old high in October, but then became support during February. So far, so good as it holds again. There wasn’t much of a bounce from down there towards the end of last week, and without a significant catalyst it is unclear how this would have played out around 7100, but in any event the footsie is well off the important level for now.

From key support to key resistance. The rally easily surged through 7192, our first noted level of potential resistance, right on to the more notable area surrounding several swing lows created over the past six weeks. The low prices on three different occasions clock in between 7255/63, but closing values in the same area of these lows come in around 7280/300; we’ll call the resistance zone 7255/300. Given the surge off support and generally strong appetite for stocks, at this time it looks likely we’ll see a push on through.

If 7300 is clearly captured, on further strength we look to the trend-line running down off the 3/17 peak, in addition to a possible underside retest of the June trend-line. This would also have the FTSE back at the 2013 top-side trend-line which has firmly kept a lid on any further advance the market has attempted to put together since January. It would make for interesting confluence if all lines aligned. A bridge we’ll cross should we get there.

For now, momentum and general risk appetite suggest we will see the rally off support continue. A sharp break back lower, taking out much of Monday’s gains, would be a sign of caution and possibly put the brakes on the notion of seeing higher prices.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form