Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Trend Lower in the Short Term

Published

8 år ago

25 april, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Gold Prices Trend Lower in the Short Term
10 Day EMA Resistance Found at $1,276.1
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After gapping lower to start this week’s trading, gold prices are again trending downward in the short term for Tuesday. Technically, gold prices continue to trade below its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), which is found at $1,276.11. This line should be references as a point of ongoing resistance, and traders should note that prices have already being rejected here once today.

If prices continue to trend lower this week, traders may look for gold prices to next challenge the standing weekly low at $1,266.73. A move to this point may then be followed by a test of the April low at $1,243.83 and the 200 day MVA (simple moving average) at $1,238.13. In the even that gold prices rally, traders should first look for a technical breakout above $1,276.11. A move about this point would again expose the standing 2017 high found at $1,295.62.

Gold Price, Daily Chart Averages

Gold Prices Trend Lower in the Short Term

(Created Using IG Charts)

Intraday analysis now has gold challenging its S1 pivot at $1,269.40. If price breaks below this value, it exposes both the S2 and S3 values of support found at $1,262.88 and $1,259.03 respectfully. Traders should note that if prices trade to either of these values, the commodity would then be trading to new weekly lows. In this bearish scenario, traders may then elect to next target the daily values of support mentioned previously.

In the event that gold rallies from present values, traders should first look for prices to trade above today’s central pivot at $1273.25. A move to this point would suggest a shift in momentum in the short term, opening the market to test key values of intraday resistance. This includes today’s R1 pivot found at $1,279.77. A move to this point should be seen as graphically significant as gold would be trading back above its 10 day EMA.

Gold Price, 30 Minute Chart and Pivots

Gold Prices Trend Lower in the Short Term

(Created Using IG Charts)

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Lastly, sentiment for spot gold remains at a positive extreme for Tuesday. Currently IG Client Sentiment totals read at +2.04. With 67% of trader’s net-long gold, a contrarian view of sentiment suggests that gold prices may continue to decline. If prices breakout to a new weekly low beneath $1,266.73, it would be expected to see sentiment totals remain at positive extremes of +2.0 or greater. Alternatively if gold prices rally and trade back above its 10 day EMA, it would be expected to see sentiment figures move back towards more neutral values.

Gold Prices Trend Lower in the Short Term

— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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