Analys från DailyFX
CAC 40 Falls From Post-Election Highs
Talking Points:
- CAC 40 Falls From Highs Post Election
- Sentiment Shifts From Extremes; IG Client Sentiment -1.39
- Looking for additional trade ideas for equities markets? Read our 2017 Market Forecast
The CAC 40 is reversing lower this morning, after initially rallying to new highs on the conclusion of the final round of the 2017 French presidential election. Yesterday’s election saw Emmanuel Macron defeat Marine Le Pen. With this news now being priced into the market, CAC 40traders will next look to ECB President Draghi’s speech on Wednesday to provide direction for European shares. So far for Monday’s trading, the CAC 40 is down -0.83%. Leaders for the session include Unibail-Rodamco (1.79%) and Carrefour (+0.51%). Top Losers for today’s trading include both Schneider Electric(-4.77%) and LafarageHolcim (-4.53%).
CAC 40, Daily Chart with 10 Day EMA
Technically despite today’s decline in price, the CAC 40 remains in an uptrend. Currently the Index remains above its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average at 5,341.22 and its 200 day MVA (simple moving average) at 4,791.89. At present, the 10 day EMA may be considered as a value of support if the CAC 40 continues to trend higher. If the Index remains supported above 5,341.22 this week, traders may look for the CAC 40 to breakout to new 2017 highs above 5,498.90.
With prices moving lower to start trading this week, traders looking for a reversal in the CAC 40 should first look for prices to trade below 5,341.22. A breakout below the displayed 10 day EMA would suggest that new bearish momentum is returning to the market. In this bearish scenario, traders may look for the Index to trade back towards key technical lows. This includes the standing May low at 5,243.60 and then the April 24th low at 5,158.50.
Want to learn more about trading with market sentiment? Get our Free guide here.
Sentiment figures for the CAC 40 (Ticker: France 40) have shifted significantly from last week’s extremes. IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) now reads at -1.39, with 41.9% of traders net-long the Index. This is a significant shift from last Thursday’s reading of -2.93. If the CAC 40 continues to decline, traders should look for sentiment to neutralize further and potentially flip to a positive reading. Alternatively if the CAC 40 finds support, sentiment is likely to shift back towards negative extremes on new higher highs.
— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To Receive Walkers’ analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
See Walker’s most recent articles at hisBio Page.
Contact and Follow Walker on Twitter @WEnglandFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Crude oil comment: US inventories remain well below averages despite yesterday’s build
- China is turning the corner and oil sentiment will likely turn with it
- Crude oil comment: Europe’s largest oil field halted – driving prices higher
- Crude oil comment: Mixed U.S. data skews bearish – prices respond accordingly
- Crude oil comment: Fundamentals back in focus, with OPEC+ strategy crucial for price direction
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke