Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Turns Lower on U.S. Political Turmoil, Big Test of Support Nearing

Published

8 år ago

18 maj, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 turns lower off top-side trend-line thanks to U.S. politics
Big test of former resistance on its way
Short-term support and resistance levels outlined

Find out what’s driving the British pound and the FTSE 100 in our market forecasts

Yesterday, global stocks were shaken on political upheaval in Washington. The FTSE 100 managed to escape yesterday’s sessions relatively unscathed, but it wasn’t until the afternoon session in the U.S. (when London was closed) that the SP 500 took another big leg lower to close near the lows of the day. We saw this spill-over into Asia overnight and Europe is under a bit of pressure at the time of this writing.

The footsie was already set up for weakness before the headlines began rolling, as it was trading at the top-side trend-line extending over the March high from the January peak. We noted it as only a level of minor resistance, but nevertheless still resistance.

With a little more selling, on a drop below the old March high the market will find itself at an interesting juncture – the 2013 top-side trend-line we’ve been discussing for several months. Last week there was only a little pause on approach before slashing through on Friday. Given the lines influence as resistance since January will it now have an important impact as support, or will we see another event like in March where it traded above for a couple of days before retreating back below? The difference between then and now and perhaps the difference-maker, is that in March the footsie started wobbling as soon as it broke above; while this time there was a clean break with momentum. A lot depends on how bad things get in the U.S. – whether it’s a short-lived reaction to turmoil surrounding the Trump administration or the beginning of a significant decline. The thinking on this end is there is at least a little more weakness in store, but not sure just yet it turns into a rout.

Keeping it simple and consistent in approach, we’ll react to price action as per usual. On a drop into old resistance now turned potentially new support (~7400), how the market responds will be the tell. With lesser importance, the April trend-line is also in the vicinity. If buyers step in, then we may have a successful test on our hands; but drop on through, then we could see a larger decline unfold and the recent surge will have turned out to be another false breakout.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form