Analys från DailyFX
S&P 500
What’s inside:
- SP 500 rebounds sharply, trades back above 2380 level and fills gap
- Should the high get tested or broken, can momentum continue?
- Fading price swings for quick-hitters the preferred approach right now
Find out what’s driving the stock market in our market forecasts.
In the last update, after the market was walloped on Trump headlines the SP 500 looked poised for follow-through, but the market had a different idea. Instead of looking towards support levels from back in March and April, we’re now staring at record levels again.
The 2380 level was an important one for a few weeks as the market consolidated just above it following the first round of the French elections. It held on several occasions, and when the market took a hit last week it was sliced through with ease. On Friday, the market attempted to break back above but settled out the week right at the key juncture. So far, this week that key level hasn’t been anything more than an afterthought.
Yesterday, the SP filled last week’s gap, with the next level of resistance arriving not far ahead at the record high of 2306. Should we see a push to that point or just beyond, can the market continue its recent surge, or will it be a fake-out breakout? Often times indices will breach a key level only to take the rug out from beneath those who most recently entered the market. With that in mind, entries are favored on pullbacks if conditions are right, not chasing breakouts. A rejection off the highs may shift the market lower with range-trading coming into play as general conditions become increasingly unclear. Should we see a move lower our biggest interest will be in how the 2380 level is handled. A hold, and we may see a push back towards the highs; a fold below and the market may be looking to at least probe last week’s low.
Overall, conviction is muted from either side of the tape and favors traders looking to fade levels on rejections with short-term objectives in mind. This will be the preferred tactical approach until the big-picture presents a clear set-up.
Heads up: Later today, the FOMC minutes from the earlier-month meeting will be released. When the March minutes were released on April 5 the market underwent an unexpected bout of volatility. It seems unlikely we will have a redux, but traders need to be prepared regardless.
SP 500: Daily
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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