Analys från DailyFX
Silver Price Poorly Postured with Gold at 2011 Trend-line
What’s inside:
- Gold trades to 2011 trend-line, viewed as major resistance until overcome; watch for a break below 1260
- Taking our cue from gold for handling silver
- Bearish gold below 2011 t-line, silver under 17.47
What’s driving precious metals? Find out in our market forecasts.
As we said last week, we are turning to how events are unfolding in gold to help shape our expectations for silver prices. On that, gold is up against a very important trend-line dating back to the 2011 high. Its influence has been quite significant on several occasions in the past year, and as we’ve said before it is our ‘line-in-the-sand’ for both sides of the market. Stay below and the long-term downtrend remains intact, break above and the gold may be on its way to turning the corner for a big move higher. With gold currently trading right around this line, we’ll first respect it for what it is until broken – major resistance. In the near-term, keep an eye on gold as it is currently supported by ~1260. A break below may be all it takes to set into motion a sell-off now that the 2011 trend-line has been tagged.
Gold: Weekly
Daily
When it comes to silver the technical landscape has been a bit murkier, with nothing substantial to lean on recently. But with gold up against the 2011 trend-line, the bias is skewed towards lower prices at this time. The relatively weak posturing of silver compared to gold suggests that if gold pulls off the 2011 trend-line with momentum silver will take a hit, and potentially a big one. Over the past two months silver has put in a lower low (May low March low) and now in position to put in a lower high from April.
For now, as long as silver stays below the recent swing-high at 17.47 and gold below the 2011 trend-line we’ll reside in the bear-camp. A break below the lower parallel in silver and 1260 in gold should be enough to intensify selling pressure.
Silver: Daily
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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