Analys från DailyFX

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY In Doldrums But Threatened

Published

8 år ago

2 juni, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY is becalmed
Its sharp, mid-May falls have yet to become anything more serious
However, they may if the bulls cannot rouse themselves soon

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The US Dollar suffered two quite-sharp falls against the Japanese Yen on May 16 and 17. But the bears have so far failed to make them into anything more portentous.

The trading range of the fourteen days since may have tediously narrow but someone is clearly trying to build a base around current levels. So far, they are succeeding.

Will they continue to?

Well, USD/JPY is quite close to the middle of its year’s range. That essentially takes in the 115.09 highs made in January and March and the 108.20 low struck on April 17. I am not focusing on the year’s actual high. That was the intraday peak of 118.55. It was made very early, on January 4. It now looks simply to have been another step away from December’s top and therefore of quite limited use when we look at actual trade this year. The 115 area is much more representative.

So, USD/JPY is becalmed, and close to the middle of its range. This suggests that, when the action gets going again, the status quo ante will be restored. Sadly, for the bulls and their doughty defense, this probably means a downtrend resumption.

For the mature, gradual downtrend from January 3 remains in place and likely to endure unless the bulls can mount a serious challenge. So far there’s no sign of that, as you can see from the chart below.

The British Pound meanwhile has been meandering perhaps more conclusively lower against the Yen in recent sessions. That said it remains notably above support at mid-April’s low of 135.92 from which it subsequently put in quite an impressive climb.

It’s hard write about the Pound without mentioning the crucial UK election looming next week. Its arguable that much of the UK currency’s relative resilience stems from investor belief that the incumbent Conservative Party will still win the vote, despite the sharp narrowing of some opinion polls in favor of the challenging Labour Party.

If that prognosis proves correct, then expect a relief rally. If it’s wrong, then that support line is likely to give way very quickly.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form