Analys från DailyFX

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: ¥140.00 Test, Bearish Channel Persists

Published

7 år ago

9 juni, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

GBP/JPY Technical Strategy: Long-term mixed, intermediate-term: bearish, short-term: bearish.
GBP/JPY broke-below the vaulted 140.00 psychological level after yesterday’s U.K. election results, but has since recovered a bit to move to the mid-line of a bearish channel.
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In our last article, we looked at the continued fall in GBP/JPY as the pair ran into a very pertinent support level around ¥141.50. But as we said, given the bearish momentum that had been showing, resistance could be sought around ¥143.50 in the effort of trading downside continuation. And after a swing-high showed just below ¥144.00, bears re-gained control and drove price action lower leading into yesterday’s election; and as election results in the U.K. triggered a fresh round of confusion and uncertainty around Brexit, sellers remained in the driver’s seat until the vaulted psychological level of ¥140.00 was tested:

Chart prepared by James Stanley

As election results began filtering-in around the U.S. market close, a large amount of gyration began to take place in GBP/JPY right around this level of ¥140.00. Buyers continued to show support at the 139.50 level, and eventually, regained control of short-term price action as prices moved back-up to prior swing resistance around 141.00. On the chart below, we get more in-depth with that short-term gyration between ¥139.50-140.00 as U.K. election results were filtering-in to markets.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Longer-term, we have a bearish channel that’s seeing a short-term push-higher. That previous level of 141.50 can be re-incorporated to assist with near-term directional stances. For those that are looking to take on bearish exposure, this can be a novel area to watch for resistance to develop in the effort of trading bearish continuation under the presumption that the bearish channel that we’ve seen in the pair may continue.

For those looking to press a bullish stance, caution is likely the order of the day, at least until 141.50 can be re-eclipsed, at which point short-term bullish momentum strategies could be considered, with target set towards previous resistance values around ¥142.50. This type of strategy would likely need to be accompanied with rather tight risk management until the bearish channel is broken, and the prospect of higher-highs on longer-term charts becomes more likely.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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