Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Slide Back into Descending Channel, Find Fibonacci Support

Published

7 år ago

12 juni, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

– Gold technical strategy: Long-term mixed, Intermediate-term mixed, short-term bearish.

– Gold prices continued the bearish move after resisting at the prior April high.

– If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. If you’re looking for shorter-term ideas, check out our IG Client Sentiment.

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In our last article, we looked at Gold prices as resistance had begun to show around the prior April high. And given that that bullish move had started right around the time that James Comey was fired on May the 9th, the fact that this resistance started to show shortly after his opening statement was released made sense from a perspective of risk aversion. Since then, and throughout Mr. Comey’s testimony and the shocking election results in the U.K., Gold prices have continued to be offered-lower, sinking back into the longer-running descending channel formation as shown below:

Chart prepared by James Stanley

As price action was diving-lower after that statement was released, but before Mr. Comey’s testimony began – buyers had attempted to offer support off of prior trend-line resistance. On the chart below, we’re looking at the quick bounce that had developed right around the time that Mr. Comey began speaking in front of the Senate.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

While buyers were able to hold support throughout most of the trading day on Thursday, another shocking election result out of the U.K. stole markets’ attention from Thursday evening and into the close of the week. Gold prices continued to be offered-lower through most of this period, with price action breaking back into the descending channel formation that’s been relevant now for almost an entire year.

After breaking-lower to start the week to set a fresh near-term low, support has begun to show around the 38.2% retracement of the most recent bullish move that started right around the time that Mr. Comey was fired. This level also syncs up with a prior swing high and a previous batch of short-term support that had shown when Gold prices were in the midst of their bullish advance.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For traders looking at bearish exposure in Gold prices, this short-term support observation could be usable. Traders can incorporate a shorter time frame chart in the effort of finding short-term resistance with the goal of continuation plays so that, if this near-term support does hold, we have an area to watch for ‘lower-high’ resistance. We look at an area below around $1,270-$1,271 that could be operable for such a purpose.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For bullish exposure, traders would likely want to wait for buyers to punch price above that $1,271 level before looking to get long. If this takes place, the current zone of support around $1,263-$1,264 could be usable for stop placement in looking at a bullish continuation move; with targets cast towards that prior April high of $1,295.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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