Analys från DailyFX

Technical Analysis: Japanese Yen Stronger Than It Might Look

Published

8 år ago

16 juni, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

The Yen is quietly but implacably strengthening against the US Dollar
USD/JPY has moved into a modestly lower range in the last week or so
The Australian Dollar is doing a lot better against the Japanese currency

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The Japanese Yen has arguably been busy doing, if not nothing, then nothing much against the US Dollar on a daily basis ever since May 16 and 17’s sharp slide.

The 28 sessions since have seen relatively narrow, range-bound trade between 111.80 to the upside and 109.28 to the down. The range may have been made slightly lower by June 6’s fall to 109.38. This looks like near-term support to conjure with, incidentally, as it also held falls on Wednesday of this week, and provided a platform for subsequent gains.

However, if we take a look further back, this harmless looking meander assumes a more sinister form, at least for USD/JPY bulls.

An impressive run of gains froim April 17 to May 10 snapped a downtrend which had been in place since March 10. However, another downtrend soon asserted itself which has been threatened but not yet conclusively broken by the past two sessions’ gains.

Looking at the above the most likely scenario is that USD/JPY continues to drift lazily lower. The problem, again for bulls, is that support line you can see at the bottom of that chart. It represents the lows for the year so far, made on April 18.

The trend strognly suggests that that prop will face a retest, possibly quite shortly. If it cannot hold then we would be back to lows not seen since November 2016 and, possibly, a threat to the whole climb up from the 99.90 area seen in the months before that.

It’s probably worth noting that USD/JPY doesn’t look obviously overbought or oversold at this point, which may suggest that extreme moves either way will face resistance.

Things look a lot better for the Australian Dollar against the Japanese currency.

AUD/JPY has turned in a nice run of gains, stretching now to nine of the last eleven trading sessions. However, celebrations may yet be premature. The 2017 downtrend remains in place, and seems likely to for some time. It comes it at around JPY85.20 at the moment, appreciably above current price levels.

Still, the cross is very close to previous highs, made on May 18 in the mid JPY84 area. Some daily or weekly closes above those might go a long way to shore up confidence.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form