Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Trying to Turn the Corner Towards New Record Highs

Published

7 år ago

4 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 tough to get a clean look from a trading perspective in the near-term
Running with the long-term trend and overall bullish price action
February 2016 trend-line, June low, and 200-day MA hold the key to maintaining outlook

How is ‘Brexit’ expected to impact the FTSE 100 and Sterling in Q3? Find out here!

From the last time we discussed the FTSE 100 earlier last week until now there has been some day-to-day volatility, but little net change has occurred during that time. It’s the market environment we’re in right now. It’s the reason we took a broader view of the index last week as opposed to the more granular views often taken in these posts. We’ll continue to do so until market conditions evolve into a more ‘trader-friendly’ environment.

The broader trend has been clearly higher over the past year, with a series of higher lows and higher highs paving the way for investors. But it hasn’t been a market which one can chase once in new record territory; when the FTSE has been at its best it has been the time to turn cautious. This isn’t behavior isolated to just the footsie (markets often work like this), but it’s on clear display as evidenced by the deep retracements before forging on to new record heights. This puts the dip-buyers in the driver’s seat.

So, where we at right now? Well, we’re not at a trough of any type; we’re coming out of one, actually. But, price action is rounding the corner in a bull-flag configuration of sorts (it’s not the most defined). It would be ideal if we saw a drop and test of the trend-line rising up from the February 2016 low before paving the way higher. The trend-line holds a fair amount of importance given the significance of the 2016 low and the fact the trend-line connects with ‘Brexit’. The more important events were around the connecting points the more important the line.

If we don’t get a test of the trend-line, a break above the top-side trend-line coming off the June record high could be the trigger for bringing in sustained buying pressure. What would turn the overall bias neutral or even outright bearish (depending on how it unfolds) is a decline below the 2016 trend-line and a lower low below the late-June low at 7302. The 200-day isn’t too far below both of these support levels, and if that were to go as well then it would further strengthen a bearish case. Overall, it would be the first lower-low in quite some time, a change in market character. But we’ll worry about that when the time comes…and it will at some point, it just doesn’t appear as if it will be any time in the immediate future.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form