Analys från DailyFX

USDJPY Options Projected One-Week Range Aligns with Key Levels

Published

7 år ago

14 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

USDJPY one-week implied volatility at 8.63% projects a 1 Stdev range of 1044-11106
Both top and bottom-side projections in alignment with key support and resistance
Look for both sides to hold with North Korea tensions simmering down

Looking for a longer-term view on USDJPY? Check out our Q3 Forecast.

In the table displayed below, are implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs for the next one-day and one-week time periods. Using levels of IV we calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)

USDJPY projected low in near exact alignment with key price support, while the projected high lies around resistance within the context of a downtrend

Last week, when we took a look at USDJPY we said that the projected one-week low of 10916 should hold in a quiet summer trading environment given support in the vicinity from June. It hasn’t been a quiet last few days with the U.S./North Korean situation escalating and spurring volatility to rise across the risk-spectrum, but nevertheless support held as the ‘risk-trade’ found support. On Friday, we saw USDJPY break through the June lows by about 10 pips before carving out a reversal-bar on the daily. So far with fear subsiding on North Korea tensions easing Europe is rallying and U.S. equity futures are in the green ahead of the U.S. open. This is helping USDJPY along. Overnight, Japan reported much better than expected preliminary 2Q GDP figures, but had limited impact on Yen traders.

Based on a current one-week implied volatility level of 8.63% the expected one-standard deviation range for the next week is 10844-11106. Looking lower, if Friday’s low fails the next area of support arrives at the April lows at 10813, with a closing worst then of 10843. The projected low of 10844 is in nearly precise alignment. We could again see support hold should another dive lower take shape.

Looking higher USDJPY still has work to do to break the downtrend dating back to the 7/11 high. Should it find continued buying pressure, a rebound unfolding towards the projected high of 11106 could stall. There lies resistance in the vicinity from a swing-higher this month which lost momentum around prior support going back to the third week of June. This may be an area where sellers step in and keep USDJPY from furthering any attempt to rally in the near-term.

For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.

USDJPY: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form