Analys från DailyFX
Silver Price Technical Analysis: Keep an Eye on Channel Support, Gold
What’s inside:
- Silver prices are still pointed higher as long as it can maintain the bullish channel off the July low
- The 200-day, upper parallel are resistance for now
- Gold firmly above the 2011 trend-line, 1296 next big hurdle
Find out in the Q3 Forecast what’s driving Gold Silver this quarter.
Silver prices have been working their way higher in bullish fashion since the spike-day low created back on 7/10. The past few days the rally stalled on a failure to maintain above the 200-day MA and after touching off on the upper parallel of the channel since in place since July. The trend in the intermediate to long-term remains down, marked by the lower highs and lower lows, however; as long as the lower parallel maintains then keeping a tentatively bullish stance in the near-term makes sense.
Looking higher, if silver keeps the channel intact and can break above last week’s high at 17.24 (also 200-day), then look for the July 2016 trend-line to come into play as the next level of resistance. Ideally, if the broader trend is to turn higher we see gold not only clear above 1296 but also see silver catch a bid above the July trend-line as well. A clean break below the lower parallel doesn’t necessarily turn the picture bearish, but will make the situation more tenuous for longs, with 16.09 becoming an important low to stay above.
Silver: Daily
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Gold clearly closed above the 2011 trend-line on the weekly time-frame, an event which helps put the precious metal in position to rally. But for it to have full clearance a break above the 1296 double-top will need to take shape. Keep an eye on this development should it happen, because while silver might not find the same kind of sponsorship it will go along for the ride should gold start to gain momentum. In the event gold fails to hold above the long-term threshold, given silver has been the weaker of the two, it is more likely to lead to the downside.
Gold: Weekly
Heads up: A potentially market-moving event comes up tomorrow at 14:00 GMT when the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released. It may be a non-event, but we’ve seen the minutes in the past have a material impact on short-term price action so traders will want to be on their toes.
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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