Analys från DailyFX

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Comfortable At The Heights?

Published

7 år ago

21 september, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

The Nikkei 225 has posted a new high for 2017
There’s a modest degree of overbuying evident, but it doesn’t look worrying
The moving averages still tell a bullish tale

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The Nikkei 225 has just hit a new high for 2017, which means it’s also at levels not seen since August 2015.

Borne aloft by a general revival in global risk appetite (US stocks have made their forty-second record peak for 2017 this week) and, possibly, by some upbeat Japanese numbers, the Nikkei’s gain leaves us with one big question. Can it stay up here and push even higher?

The technical signals are mixed, as they were always bound to be at such elevated levels. But they are far from gloomy. Yes, the index’s Relative Strength Index is looking a little stretched. At the 72 level it is just above the 70 line above which most investors would consider the index “overbought.” However, it’s hardly comfortable above that line yet.

More encouragingly for bulls the index is looking very comfortable indeed above its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. That has been a rather rare sight this year and suggests that the Nikkei may yet have more to give. Moreover the 20-day crossed above the 50 on Wednesday. This is generally held to be a bullish sign.

It’s probably best not to take the moving averages as signs of a certain push higher. They’ve been very close together for some time, making crosses short lived before reversal and tough to read. However, the latest is certainly not a bad sign for bulls.

For now, the index is slap in the middle of its most recent uptrend channel, that traced from its September 8 closing low.

This is quite a narrow channel and it may not tell us a huge amount. That said a Friday close within it, and anywhere near current levels, will probably count as a satisfying end to the week’s work for bulls. It would also bolster hopes that the index can, at least consolidate up here. Keep an eye on that RSI though.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form