Analys från DailyFX

Euro and Pound Maintain Gains as US Dollar Hits Two-Month Low

Published

11 år ago

9 augusti, 2013

DailyFX

INTRADAY PERFORMANCE UPDATE: 09:40 GMT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.15% (-1.56% prior 5-days)

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The US Dollar is in the midst of a six-day losing streak that has seen the world’s reserve currency track to its lowest level since June 20. The downturn, spurred on by a disappointing July US NFP report last Friday, has mainly benefited the Australian Dollar, which is in the midst of its best week in two years.

Aussie strength has accelerated the past two days as swaps markets are only pricing in a 60% chance of another 25-bps cut by year end from the Reserve Bank of Australia, whereas that number was 72% in the wake of the RBA’s cut to 2.50% this Tuesday. Shifting rate expectations, while still technically dovish for the Australian Dollar, can prove to be positive so long as Chinese data continues to stabilize.

Beyond the Aussie, two currencies that saw a dearth of weak economic data in the early part of the year – the British Pound and the Euro – have been riding what has been a wave of positive surprises since late-May. While neither has posted extensive gains today versus the US Dollar, both remain at multi-week highs (the Euro since pre-FOMC in June; the Sterling in seven-weeks).

GBPUSD 1-min Chart: Friday, August 09, 2013 Intraday

Euro_and_Pound_Maintain_Gains_as_US_Dollar_Hits_Two-Month_Low_body_x0000_i1027.png, Euro and Pound Maintain Gains as US Dollar Hits Two-Month Low

With a light North American economic calendar due in several hours, volatility is likely to die out into the end of the week. However, excitement around the European currencies should build early next week as there are several significant events due. Especially in the wake of the Bank of England’s shift in monetary policy this week,the July UK Consumer Price Index report and the June UK labor market reading will have elevated importance.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

Euro_and_Pound_Maintain_Gains_as_US_Dollar_Hits_Two-Month_Low_body_Picture_1.png, Euro and Pound Maintain Gains as US Dollar Hits Two-Month Low

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY

Euro_and_Pound_Maintain_Gains_as_US_Dollar_Hits_Two-Month_Low_body_x0000_i1029.png, Euro and Pound Maintain Gains as US Dollar Hits Two-Month Low

EURUSD – The rally off of the early-July lows continues to progress as anticipated, with the 100% extension target yet to be achieved from the Symmetrical Triangle consolidation pattern that formed July 11 to July 19. The 100% extension comes in at $1.3444, just above the pre-June FOMC meeting high; resistance should be found in the ‘sandwiched’ region of 1.3415/45.

Accordingly, with the daily RSI showing signs of pending bearish divergence and the daily Slow Stochastic (5,3,3) reaching overbought territory and starting to compress, I am looking for one more new high in the EURUSD near 1.3415/45 at which point I will look to sell for countertrend, near-term pullback.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form