Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Gains After Retail Sales, Dollar Down Overnight; US CPI Ahead

Published

11 år ago

15 augusti, 2013

DailyFX

INTRADAY PERFORMANCE UPDATE: 09:30 GMT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.29% (+0.15%prior 5-days)

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

More good news out of the United Kingdom this morning with the July Retail Sales report crushing expectations, and quickly elevating the British Pound to an eight-week high against the US Dollar. Unquestionably, data out of the UK has been the best among the currencies covered by DailyFX Research the past two-months, underpinning a swift turnaround in the Sterling’s fundamentals.

Even as the British Pound adds to its recent gains, it cannot take claim of top performer on the day, That instead goes to the New Zealand Dollar, whose neighbor the Australian Dollar is in a close second, up by +0.73% and +0.64% against the US Dollar respectively.

I believe that the broad US Dollar weakness, and thus prevailing favor towards the commodity – higher yielding – currencies is no coincidence in light of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s comments on inflation yesterday and the upcoming July US Consumer Price Index today.

President Bullard’s main critique of the Fed’s shift – most visible by his dissent at the June FOMC meeting – has been that it threatens to undermine the Fed’s credibility on inflation. That is to say, with inflation running so low, the Fed’s dovish credentials may be at stake (which would render QE a hapless exercise); and therefore any exit from QE3 is premature.

We thus turn to the US CPI report for further direction on the US Dollar, which has come off across the board. Another soft CPI print could be a metaphorical nail in the coffin for a ‘Septaper’; but a surprise to the upside (perhaps resulting from improved July consumption figures) would restore any lost confidence and help the US Dollar continue its rebound from a two-month low.

GBPUSD 5-min Chart: Thursday, August 15, 2013 Intraday

British_Pound_Gains_After_Retail_Sales_Dollar_Down_Overnight_US_CPI_Ahead_body_x0000_i1027.png, British Pound Gains After Retail Sales, Dollar Down Overnight; US CPI Ahead

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

British_Pound_Gains_After_Retail_Sales_Dollar_Down_Overnight_US_CPI_Ahead_body_Picture_1.png, British Pound Gains After Retail Sales, Dollar Down Overnight; US CPI Ahead

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY

British_Pound_Gains_After_Retail_Sales_Dollar_Down_Overnight_US_CPI_Ahead_body_x0000_i1029.png, British Pound Gains After Retail Sales, Dollar Down Overnight; US CPI Ahead

USDJPY – The overbought readings in both H4 RSI and Slow Stochastics (5,3,3,) have been resolved but only little downside was produced, with price maintaining ¥98.00. Accordingly, with H4 candles finding support at the conflux of the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the June low to July high and the 21-/55-EMA bullish crossover at 97.50/70, the next leg higher looks ready to begin. The Bullish Falling Wedge pattern first identified on Sunday night remains valid and points to 99.80/100.00.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form