Analys från DailyFX
GBP/USD Reverses from Major Market Level; Know these Levels Now
- USDJPY teeters, significant technical confluence next week.
- GBPUSD weekly key reversal at major resistance
- USDMXN possibly setting up for a huge move later this year
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Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-USDJPY closed the week below the trendline that originates from the June low. It is possible that a 3 month triangle is complete. This is the working assumption as long as price is below 98.72.
-The decline from July would consist of 2 equal waves at 94.89. This level intersects channel support that originates at the July high AND the channel that originates from the March 2012 high on Wednesday!
-The channels are ‘Elliott’ channels. The short term downward sloping channel is a corrective channel. The long term upward sloping channel is an impulsive channel.
Trading Strategy: Picture is bearish below 98.72 but have to be aware of the mentioned channel confluence as a huge level at 95. What happens there likely determines the next big move (to either 90 or above the May high).
GBPUSD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-The Jan 2nd close at 1.6252 nailed the high so far, which came in at 1.6259. Resistance this week was reinforced by a 4 year resistance line.
–A key reversal week (new high and close below prior close) unfolded this week.
–EURGBP (see last week) technicals are favorable for a more important top forming in GBPUSD.
Trading Strategy: Response of market to trendline and first day of year close (1.5952) bodes well for larger top. 9/24 low at 1.5954 and 21 day average at 1.5981 may inspire a pop…before another leg lower. Have 1.6140 in mind (‘no taper’ day close…huge volume that day) as level to get short. If things get ugly early next week (has to be early) then the uncovered close at 1.5876 (9/13) may come into play as support.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-USDMXN has been trading in a broad range since the June high. The pattern may take the form of a 3 point ascending triangle. Such patterns have the ability to produce intense bullish market moves.
-Thursday’s spike probably caps the advance for a bit. Levels to watch for support are the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the rally from the September low at 12.96 and 12.87.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-An ending diagonal (wedge) formed from the March 2011 high to the August 2012 low. Diagonals are often fully retraced, therefore the objective is the origin of the diagonal at 1.9564.
-An inverse head(s) and shoulders may be forming since February 2012. The pattern is slightly upward sloping, making it especially (potentially) powerful (see a completed version on EURAUD below). Exceeding 1.7274 would complete the pattern. Incidentally, the measured objective would be just pips from the origin of the mentioned diagonal.
Trading Strategy: Near term picture isn’t there yet. Failed rally this week suggests that we allow for at least sideways trading if not a test of the September high.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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