Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: USD/JPY Fails Again
Talking Points
- USD/JPY reverses from key long-term resistance
- EUR/USD rebounds from key Gann level
- AUD/USD testing important resistance
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD traded to its lowest level in over a month late last week before finding support just ahead of the 1.3540 3rd square root relationship of the 2013 high
- Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Euro while below the 2013 closing high at 1.3800
- The 50% retracement of the November to December advance at 1.3590 is interim support, but only weakness under 1.3540 confirms the start of another leg lower in the rate
- The middle of the week is a minor cycle turn window
- Only over 1.3800 shifts our near-term trend bias back to positive
EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while below 1.3800
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD tested the 9th square root realtionship of the 4Q13 high at .8860 again last week before reversing sharply higher
- Our near-term trend bias is higher while above .8860
- A variety of Fibonacci and Gann price relationships converge between .9040 and .9060 and strength over the latter is needed to expose the next key zone of resistance at .9160
- A medium-term cycle turn window is seen on Tuesday and Wednesday
- Interim support is seen at .8960, but only weakness under .8860 on a daily closing basis will turn us negative on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8860.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
The reversal in USD/JPY we have been writing about over the past couple of weeks has finally begun to take shape following Friday’s second failure at critical long-term retracement resistance near 105.35/55. Initial weakness on Friday stalled again at a Gann angle line related to the 2011 low with the exchange rate closing right on this level to end the week. The new week, however, has seen this support level easily give way leading to a fairly quick drop to test the second square root relationship of the year-to-date high around 103.35. This level is an important near-term pivot with clear weakness below (daily close) needed to signal that a more ominous decline is unfolding. Interim resistance is now seen at 104.40 and 104.85. Time cycle analysis suggests the second half of next week is the next turn window of importance.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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