Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Fails above Long Term Trendline as USDCAD Breaks Out
- EURUSD 1.3800 a decent pivot
- AUDUSD at critical juncture from long term trendline
- USDCAD announces next bull leg
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Weekly
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-EURUSD failed to hold above the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs this week. The development could mark an important change in conditions. A reaction area rests at the February 2013 high of 1.3710 and a break below 1.3642 would make a stronger case for a larger topping process.
-Trading wise, 1.3810/30 is resistance (held Friday) although 1.3868 could come into play down the road.
Weekly
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-GBPUSD found support in February from former resistance levels; specifically the October high and top side of the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The rally from the level signals a significant breakout but the move has stalled near the November 2009 high.
-A weekly key reversal the week that ended 2/21 and a doji the week that ended 3/7 were advance warnings of a top. The rate ends Friday near the line that extends off of the November and February lows. Failure to hold up here would further bearish developments and open up 1.6250-1.6300.
Weekly
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-The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067.
-AUDUSD is nearing the .9166-.9267 resistance zone but the market is already at trendline resistance. A break above the line makes a case for a run to .9386-.9405 (2009 high and 2011 low).
Weekly
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-NZDUSD spent much of the week above the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2013 highs but closed the week close to unchanged. The development could indicate a false break and therefore a top.
-Weakness below .8350 is needed to suggest that the larger trend has reversed.
Weekly
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-USDJPY tested the underside of the trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 2 weeks ago. The top was also in line with the May 2013 high.
-Near term, USDJPY is failing within the 102.50/85 zone. USDJPY rallies are corrective at multiple degrees of trend; from 100.75 and 101.20. The implication is bearish.
-Longer term, there is an Elliott case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.
Weekly
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–Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low.
-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.
Weekly
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-USDCHF has broken to its lowest level since October 2011. A massive head and shoulders top is completed (again) after a false break in October, and neckline retest in January. There is no chart support until .8566 (October 2011 low) and the head and shoulders target is .8071.
-Use .8930 as a pivot. In other words, price needs to exceed .8930 in order to negate downside bearish implications from the break.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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