Analys från DailyFX
A EUR/GBP Set-up with Confluent Long Signals
Talking Points:
- Potential False Breakout for EUR/GBP
- Gartley Pattern Completing on Daily Chart
- Structuring a Trade with ”Exceptionally” Low Risk
As many major currencies continue to fluctuate within consolidating patterns, EURGBP seems to be presenting quite an interesting technical trade set-up.
The daily chart below shows a triangle breakout within a consolidation zone. At this daily level of analysis, however, the trend direction is not at all clear, and it might be fairest to call it sideways. However, interested traders may look to the weekly chart (not shown) to discover that generally bullish momentum holds true for EURGBP.
Guest Commentary: Daily Triangle Breakout in EUR/GBP
In a sideways market, prices are always more prone to being whipsawed, but the presence of a secondary price pattern makes this particular set-up even more interesting. Here, that comes in the form of the Gartley pattern that is now beginning to complete on the below daily chart. The first pullback respected the 61.8% retracement of the original move, and should the next leg react at the 78.6% retracement, as a standard Gartley pattern would anticipate, the resulting move would be bullish.
Guest Commentary: Gartley Pattern Completing in EUR/GBP
A decent move upwards to test the Gartley high could contain 180 pips or more, which is quite significant for this slow-moving pair, and that makes it all the more possible for traders of all risk appetites to structure trades with appropriate risk profile.
The four-hour chart below readily provides a zone of support around the anticipated 78.6% Gartley reaction level, as indicated. The zone turns out to be 0.8205-0.8228, which is an exceptionally small 23 pips. More aggressive traders could simply initiate a long trade with a stop past the support zone and a stop loss of 30 pips, but it would be most preferable to wait for a trade trigger to occur on the hourly chart (not shown).
Guest Commentary: Key Support Zone for Buying EUR/GBP
Viable trade triggers would consist of pin bars, bullish reversal divergence, and/or bullish engulfing patterns on the hourly chart. Even though two or three attempts may be required to hop on to this move, the very favorable risk profile makes this trade highly worthwhile.
The slow-moving nature of EURGBP can often test a trader’s patience, but nonetheless, it is quite nice to see a confluence of a trend line breakout and a Gartley pattern. Afterall, the most rewarding trades often occur on the heels of such false breakouts when traders are properly positioned to trade the long side, in this case.
By Kaye Lee, private fund trader and head trader consultant, StraightTalkTrading.com
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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