Analys från DailyFX

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Broken Trendline, Heavy Cap

Published

9 år ago

24 mars, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

The ASX has looked stuck for weeks as the year’s peaks prove too high
However, it has at least not fallen far
Could this change with this week’s trendline break?

The Australian ASX 200 equity benchmark’s 2017 story is in many ways the story of developed-market stocks everywhere.

It entered the year quite triumphant after the long, steep climb which followed Donald Trump’s shock presidential election win. But then – well – it did nothing much of anything except hold on. The ASX hasn’t fallen far this year, but it hasn’t managed to build convincing gains either.

So far, so like most of its peers. But, unlike many of them, the ASX has tried to regain that top twice after its initial rejection on January 10, and failed on every occasion. It arguably made a third brave foray on March 2.

Bluntly, it looks as though the year’s peak around 5185.50 is becoming ever-more formidable resistance.

And there’s more bad news. As it fell this week, the ASX snapped a nice little rising trend line which had been in place for a comforting 32 straight sessions. It gave way on Wednesday. Now admittedly it has not yet done so conclusively. There must still be some hope that the index can fight its way back above it. Indeed, it will have accomplished that on Friday if it can close above 5765. That’s not a huge ask from current levels (5752.50 at 0400 GMT Friday)

But as things stand, the ASX is below a broken-if-minor trend line and way below a 2017 peak which has repeatedly proved too much for the bulls. These are both bad signs. Furthermore, clear daily-chart support is hard to spot at current levels. For that we have to get all the way back down to the 5605 level at which the index formed its last solid base, back in late January.

Under Pressure: ASX 200

Would you like to know more about financial market trading? The DailyFX trading guide is for you.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

9 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form