Analys från DailyFX
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Ripping Into the Reversal Zone
Talking Points
-AUD/USD presses into a potential reversal zone of .7520-.7600
-Near term and medium term patterns are bearish against .7678
-Follow SSI in the resistance zone for clues if the price zone may hold or break
AUD/USD has finally pushed up into the bearish reversal zone. We have been anticipating this bump higher as recent as Friday. The .7520-.7600 level was highlighted on Friday as a zone which may represent the final leg of a bullish push. It is possible we may see one more high above .7545, though it is not required as the previously bullish pattern can now be counted as completed.
The top side key level to watch under this analysis is the July 14 high of .7678. A move above .7678 threatens the near term wave picture, though the medium term outlook would remain bearish.
On a successful move lower we have horizontal support and trend line support near .7285-.7300. The next level of support is .7150.
Based on the Elliott Wave count, we are anticipating a sustained move down towards .70 and possibly .65 as AUDUSD would be falling in a 3rd wave that began on July 15. We previously noted :
“If this outlook holds, then AUD/USD would be at risk of falling hard in a 3rd of 3rd wave lower. Third waves tend to be the longest and strongest of the Elliott Wave sequence.”
“AUD/USD Quietly Coils Together 2 Bearish Patterns in a Row” July 22, 2105
With Sentiment, measured via SSI, clocking in at +1.06, that means there is about 50% of the traders who are going to be on the wrong side of a trade. With news event risk heavy over the next 24 hours (namely Australian CPI coming out later today and FOMC concluding their two day meeting tomorrow), this could create a knee jerk reaction that catches many AUDUSD traders off guard. See if FXCM traders are buying or selling AUDUSD here.
We researched millions of live trades and found what traits successful traders tend to have. For example, on pages 7-9 you will find that this one simple trick created a pool of traders such that 53% were profitable. Their counterparts who did not implement this technique produced a pool of traders where only 17% were profitable. Learn how to implement this technique here.
Interested in a quarterly outlook for USD or other markets? Download our quarterly forecast here.
—Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU
Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .
See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.
To receive additional articles from Jeremy via email, join Jeremy’s distribution list.
Check out the latest standings for the FXCM trading contest HERE.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Tightening fundamentals – bullish inventories from DOE
- Bombs to ”ceasefire” in hours – Brent below $70
- A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do
- Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks
- Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan
-
Analys från DailyFX10 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Analys från DailyFX12 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX12 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter7 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke