Analys från DailyFX

Aussie Firms on Election Outcome

Published

11 år ago

9 september, 2013

DailyFX

Talking Points

– Syrian tensions remain between Russia and US, but no strike for now.

– Australian Dollar jumps on election outcome; could be short-lived.

– US Dollar trades broadly lower after August NFPs disappoint.

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INTRADAY PERFORMANCE UPDATE: 09:50 GMT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.12% (-0.20%prior 5-days)

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is trading back near its post-NFPs release low from Friday as risk-appetite has firmed across the globe – at least in FX markets. Overnight, 2Q’13 GDP figures showed that the Japanese economy grew by +3.8% annualized, a slight tick down from the +4.1% figure in the 1Q’13 but well-above the prior 2Q’13 estimate of +2.6%.

While the stronger growth figures have stoked a turnaround in the Japanese Yen from its overnight lows – stronger growth reduces the need for more easing from the Bank of Japan – the funding and safe haven currency remains a bottom performer after news broke over the weekend that Tokyo would host the 2020 Olympics. Mainly, this has to do with the Yen’s inverse relationship with the Nikkei 225, which closed up by +2.48% on Monday.

Also out of the Eastern Hemisphere this weekend was news that Paul Abbott of the Liberal Party (right-leaning) ousted Kevin Rudd of the Labor Party (left-leaning) as Prime Minister of Australia. The Australian Dollar has emerged as a top performer in the wake of the results as Mr. Abbott promised to revitalize the country’s mining sector, and generally boost what has been a sagging economy over the past two years.

Mr. Abbott’s desires for economic grandeur may be misguided. Indeed, with the recent slowdown in China and emerging market turmoil, there is mounting evidence that the global commodity supercycle may be cooling; neither Mr. Abbott nor Mr. Rudd could do anything about that. Even if carbon taxes and mining taxes are dismissed, the core issue remains: weak revenue streams as demand for base metals erodes – Australia’s top export being iron ore.

Accordingly, what this means is that we should expect new policies to struggle; and the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely need to keep its policy looser than previously anticipated as the Australian government undergoes its own version of fiscal consolidation. Incoming data remains important; but we wouldn’t be surprised if the RBA front-runs any fiscal drag with at least one more 25-bps rate cut in 2013.

AUDJPY 5-minute Chart: September 9, 2013 Intraday

Aussie_Firms_on_Election_Outcome_-_Rally_Unjustified_Given_Economic_Pitfalls_body_x0000_i1027.png, Aussie Firms on Election Outcome - Rally Unjustified Given Economic Pitfalls

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

Aussie_Firms_on_Election_Outcome_-_Rally_Unjustified_Given_Economic_Pitfalls_body_Picture_1.png, Aussie Firms on Election Outcome - Rally Unjustified Given Economic Pitfalls

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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